Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2004 2:24 pm Post subject: Asia Faces Living Nightmare from Climate Change
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The weather predictions for Asia in 2050 read
like a script from a doomsday movie.
Except many climatologists and green groups fear they will come true
unless there is a concerted global effort to rein in greenhouse gas
emissions.
In the decades to come, Asia -- home to more than half the world's 6.3
billion people -- will lurch from one climate extreme to another, with
impoverished farmers battling droughts, floods, disease, food
shortages and rising sea levels.
"It's not a pretty picture," said Steve Sawyer, climate policy adviser
with Greenpeace in Amsterdam. Global warming and changes to weather
patterns are already occurring and there is enough excess carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to drive climate
change for decades to come.
Already, changes are being felt in Asia but worse is likely to come,
Sawyer and top climate bodies say, and could lead to mass migration
and widespread humanitarian crises.
According to predictions, glaciers will melt faster, some Pacific and
Indian Ocean islands will have to evacuate or build sea defenses,
storms will become more intense and insect and water-borne diseases
will move into new areas as the world warms.
All this comes on top of rising populations and spiraling demand for
food, water and other resources. Experts say environmental degradation
such as deforestation and pollution will likely magnify the impacts of
climate change.
In what could be a foretaste of the future, Japan was hit by a record
10 typhoons and tropical storms this year, while two-thirds of
Bangladesh, parts of Nepal and large areas of northeastern India were
flooded, affecting 50 million people, destroying livelihoods and
making tens of thousands ill.
The year before, a winter cold snap and a summer heat wave killed more
than 2,000 people in India.
INDIA AT RISK
Sawyer said India, with a population of just over 1 billion people, is
one of the areas most threatened by climate change.
Rising sea levels will also bring misery to millions in Asia, he said,
causing sea water to inundate fertile rice-growing areas and
fresh-water aquifers, making some areas uninhabitable.
Sawyer said India and Bangladesh will have to draw up permanent
relocation plans for millions of people. "I'm afraid that's almost
inevitable."
By 2050, China will have built sea defenses along part of its
low-lying, storm-prone southeastern coast, while the North of the
country faced increasing desertification, he said.
According to the U.N.'s World Food Program, the Gobi Desert in China
expanded by 20,230 square miles between 1994 and 1999, creeping closer
to the capital Beijing.
Anwar Ali, a leading climatologist in Bangladesh, says about 15
percent of the country would be under water if sea levels rose by a
yard in the next century.
Perhaps the biggest threat to Asia in the future will be the shortage
of clean water. The WFP says Asia accounts for 60 percent of the
world's population but has only 36 percent of the globe's fresh water.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
rapid melting of glaciers poses a major threat to the Indian
Subcontinent, Southeast Asia and parts of China.
Seven major rivers, including the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra and the
Mekong, begin in the Himalayas and the glacial meltwater during summer
months is crucial to the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people
downstream.
RICH VERSUS POOR
But many of these glaciers are melting quickly and will be unable to
act as reservoirs that moderate river flows. This means less water in
the dry season and the chance for more extreme floods during the wet
season.
Sawyer thinks rich countries, by far the biggest polluters, should
look after the millions at risk from climate change or suffer the
consequences that could include mass migration or trying to feed
millions made homeless by droughts and floods in a world struggling to
grow enough food.
Fears of mass migration have already prompted the Pentagon and the
Canadian Security Intelligence Service, among others, to study the
risk from climate-induced mass migration.
The Pentagon in its 2003 report looked at what might happen if the
climate changed abruptly. The result was near anarchy.
"As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could
mount around the world," it said. This could lead some wealthier
nations becoming virtual fortresses to preserve their resources.
"Less fortunate nations, especially those with ancient enmities with
their neighbors, may initiate struggles for access to food, clean
water, or energy," the report said.
Few places are more exposed to climate change than the low-lying
Maldives islands, to the west of Sri Lanka, where the highest natural
point is under 8 feet. _________________ Asia Expats Forum Expat Friends Dating
Some say it is getting hotter and some say cooler,depends on where you are looking.
The doom sayers are always saying things like that, while others say that it runs in cycles and now we are in what ever cycle we happen to be in. Seems like the history of the planet has been thru many cycles and another ice age is predicted for the future and the earth has had many dry,wet and ice age periods
I do believe the cutting/burning is not good for the time we are living in and it will probibly be bad for us, but the earth will live thru it, The human race as we know it today might not, but there has been many life forms that were predominate on this planet, they also have became extinct and been replaced by others as will the humans.
But I won't live to see any of it as these cycles take many years to complete and 1 million years is nothing but a flick of time in world happenings.
Things seem to be preordained and I don't think there is anything we can do but set and watch what happens next.
I agree that the planet has cycles, but mans activities over the past couple of hundred years seems to have made a major impact on climate.
Whether "major" is critical or not depends upon which report you read.
I suspect that the truth os somewhere between the best and worst case scenarios.
However, irrespective of that, the present weather changes seem to be getting more severe and causing lots of problems.
It could easily result in massive floods, and other disasters causing tens of millions of deaths.
Perhaps if everyone took note of the "worst case" people and limited the things that those people say should be limited, we might mitigate the harm, and not have such a serious situation. _________________ The Middle Eastern states aren't nations; they're quarrels with borders.- P. J. O'Rourke
Ah yes.... the secrets of the universe. How does it exist? Is life just a freak occurance? The race against extinction? Can man get out of here before the earth burns up? What to eat for dinner? _________________ Asia Expats Forum Expat Friends Dating
Glad ytou got the important stuff in, even if it was the last one. _________________ The Middle Eastern states aren't nations; they're quarrels with borders.- P. J. O'Rourke
Alan; everything you said is true, But try to stop what is happening here today, the gov't. has made it unlawful to cut and burn,which does cause soil erossion and cause floods from runoff, but they will not enforce the very laws they pass, it looks good on paper but looks like shit on the ground. Just like the new law prohibiting the throwing of buckets of water in the face of some lady and her 3 small children on a small motorbike on the way to mkt. to buy food during songkhran and killing her or her kids,,the law was passed but it is never enforced,not once.
The farmers think that they have to burn,and so they just set some fires and they burn every hillside til they burn themselves out. Vast areas of steep hillsides that are denuded to bare earth, and the rains come and all the usable soil is washed into the lake down lower and the streams are full of mud.
Two or three years ago there was nice forest on the hillsides behind my house a few miles away, always green, and they set them on fire, smoke filled the air for months and all night you could see the fires thru the smoke and it finally burned everything on the hillssides,,now for the last couple of years there is nothing but dry brown brush visible,,shallow root systems that only use surface water and with out rain turn brown and burn easy, when it rains the runoff is almost pure mud.
The Thai do not seem to care and refuse to understand that it is to their advantage not to do these things, you can explain to them and they shrug their shoulders, all the while getting out their BIC to set something else on fire. maybe they are all piromaniacs.
I agree.
It is the same in the Philippines.
There has just been a massive flood that killed 200 people, made worse by illegal logging.
A shame, but as you say, there isnt much we can do about it. _________________ The Middle Eastern states aren't nations; they're quarrels with borders.- P. J. O'Rourke
Damn shame too,but you can not seem to make them understand,,maybe it didnt used to hurt much with a few people doing it,,but now there are a lot more people and they still do the same things by the thousands that used to be done by a few.
Emissions of greenhouse gases have more than doubled the risk of European heatwaves similar to last year's, according to a study by UK scientists.
In 2003, temperatures across western Europe soared by several degrees Celsius above normal - and five degrees in the case of Switzerland.
It is thought that the unusually hot summer caused tens of thousands of excess deaths.
Oxford University and UK Meteorological Office researchers behind the new study say it may soon be possible to hold nations and companies responsible for such events.
"This study suggests a way in which one might be able to link greenhouse gas emissions to actual harm," Oxford's Professor Myles Allen told the BBC.
Last year's European summer appears to have been the warmest for five hundred years; and by running computer models of climate, these researchers calculated that greenhouse gases from human activities have more than doubled the chances of such heatwaves occurring.
SNIPPED.
I came back from the Philippines in June 03, and it was hotter here than it had been over there. A few days later I was at a Filipino event, and the Filipinos were complaining about the heat here! _________________ The Middle Eastern states aren't nations; they're quarrels with borders.- P. J. O'Rourke
Hard to imagine a heat wave causing so many deaths but I guess anything is possible these days _________________ Asia Expats Forum Expat Friends Dating
Emissions of greenhouse gases have more than doubled the risk of European heatwaves similar to last year's, according to a study by UK scientists.
In 2003, temperatures across western Europe soared by several degrees Celsius above normal - and five degrees in the case of Switzerland.
It is thought that the unusually hot summer caused tens of thousands of excess deaths.
Oxford University and UK Meteorological Office researchers behind the new study say it may soon be possible to hold nations and companies responsible for such events.
"This study suggests a way in which one might be able to link greenhouse gas emissions to actual harm," Oxford's Professor Myles Allen told the BBC.
Last year's European summer appears to have been the warmest for five hundred years; and by running computer models of climate, these researchers calculated that greenhouse gases from human activities have more than doubled the chances of such heatwaves occurring.
SNIPPED.
I came back from the Philippines in June 03, and it was hotter here than it had been over there. A few days later I was at a Filipino event, and the Filipinos were complaining about the heat here!
Still warmer than usual? The warmer climate does have some benefits, such as reducing demand for heating oil, which can help to reduce the price of oil.
Last week it went down to -2 C, which means that everyones heating was on.
With the rise in summer temperatures many people are now getting air conditioning, something that was unknown here until recently.
That will add to energy costs in the summer.
Now, if only we could store some of the summer heat until now....
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
Album
FAQ
Quizzes
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
