Was shocked to see on the news today that there is a risk that 5-150 mil people could be killed if the the bird flu virus were to evolve to infect humans and spread much the way a norlmal cold does.
Am I among the 150 mil who will die? Are you? Lets find out whats this is all about before we get blindsided with some very harsh realities. I'll do some research and post some info and links ASAP--I would hope otehr members will contribute as well.
There was a programme on the radio about it today.
According to the "experts", the death toll in the UK "could be millions" but is more likely to be around 50,000 or perhaps more, or less.
In other words, they dont have any real idea.
And, that is IF, repeat IF it eveloves into a type that spreads easily between humans, and IF in so evolving, it doesnt also develop in wasy that make it easeir to cure, and, IF, etc etc.
Yes, it MIGHT become a problem, and I agree that science should work on it, but dont think it is time to panic yet. _________________ The Middle Eastern states aren't nations; they're quarrels with borders.- P. J. O'Rourke
LONDON, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Romania reported three cases of avian flu in a village in the Danube delta on Saturday and started to cull hundreds of birds to prevent the disease from spreading, chief veterinarian Ion Agafitei said. Tests were being carried out to determine which strain of the virus was involved.
A total of 65 people have died from the disease in Asia since late 2003, 44 in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand, five in Indonesia, four in Cambodia.
Here is a brief chronology of the spread of Asian bird flu:
Dec 15, 2003 - South Korea confirms a highly contagious type of bird flu at a chicken farm near Seoul and begins a mass cull of poultry when the virus rapidly spreads across the country.
Dec 31 - Taiwan reports its first case and later destroys thousands of chickens with a milder form of avian flu.
Jan 8, 2004 - Vietnam says bird flu has been found on many of its poultry farms.
Jan 13 - The World Health Organisation confirms the deaths of three people in Vietnam are linked to bird flu.
Jan 25 - Indonesia discovers an outbreak among chickens.
Jan 26 - Thailand confirms the death of a six-year-old boy, its first human death from bird flu.
Feb 12 - The World Health Organisation confirms tests show no evidence bird flu is passing from person to person.
March 16 - China declares it has stamped out the disease in all 49 hotbeds and has had no reports among poultry for 29 days.
May 26 - Thailand reports a fresh case of bird flu is found in several dead chickens on a university research farm in the northern city of Chiang Mai.
Aug 19 - Malaysia says a strain of bird flu has been found in two chickens that died in a northern village near the Thai border in the country's first bird flu outbreak.
Sept 27 - Thailand says it has found its first known probable case of a human being infecting another with bird flu. It said this was an isolated incident that posed little risk to the greater population.
Dec 15 - Taiwan says it has discovered two strains of avian flu in migratory birds in the northern part of the island, the milder H5N2 strain and also the H5N6 strain.
April 5, 2005 - The UN says that the H7 strain of bird flu previously undetected in Asia has been found in North Korea.
July 8 - The Philippines says it has suffered its first case of bird flu, in ducks. It later says it is free from any highly pathogenic strain of bird flu.
July 20 - Indonesia confirms its first deaths from bird flu.
July 26 - Japan says a fresh outbreak of bird flu has been discovered on a chicken farm in eastern Japan. All outbreaks in the Ibaraki prefecture since late June have been confirmed as the weak H5N2 strain.
Aug 9 - Vietnam reports one new human death from bird flu, taking its death toll to 43. The H5N1 virus has also killed 12 people in Thailand, four in Cambodia and three in Indonesia.
Aug 10 - The bird flu virus has been found in Tibet, the world animal health body OIE says.
Aug 15 - Russia reports an outbreak of bird flu in the Urals region of Chelyabinsk, the sixth region to be affected.
Aug 23 - In Kazakhstan a bird flu outbreak of the H5N1 strain in seven northern villages is confirmed as dangerous to humans.
Aug 26 - Finland says it has found a possible case of bird flu in a seagull in the northern town of Oulu.
Sept 1 - Vietnam reports one new human death from bird flu, taking its total to 44.
Sept 15 - United States says it has promised Vietnam $2.5 million over 5 years to improve its collection of information on bird flu. Vietnam says it is vaccinating poultry to prevent new outbreaks.
Sept 16 - Indonesia confirms fourth human death from bird flu.
Sept 26 - Indonesia confirms fifth human death from H5N1 strain of bird flu, says disease has spread to 22 of its 33 provinces.
Oct 8 - Romania reports avian flu cases in a Danube delta village, culls hundreds of domestic birds to prevent the disease from spreading, unclear which strain is involved. _________________ Asia Expats Forum Expat Friends Dating
Romania and Greece arent far apart as the crow flies, Or any other wild bird either, and that appears to be what is apreading the disease at the present. _________________ The Middle Eastern states aren't nations; they're quarrels with borders.- P. J. O'Rourke
Posted: Thu Nov 03, 2005 8:22 pm Post subject: World Bank warns of bird flu cost
A bird flu pandemic would lead to "enormous global costs" for the world economy, a new World Bank report says.
In a study of East Asian economic performance, the World Bank identified bird flu as a "large shadow" already affecting growth in some areas.
Tourism, transport and retail sectors would all suffer if a pandemic broke out, while East Asia's poultry industry is already struggling, the bank said.
The warning came as regional leaders met for talks dominated by bird flu.
The World Bank predicted that East Asian economic growth would slow during 2006, but would suffer much more if a pandemic erupted.
"One large shadow looms over the generally positive economic outlook we have sketched out... and that is avian flu," said World Bank economist Homi Kharas.
In a separate analysis, the Asian Development Bank warned that the economic damage from a pandemic could be as high as $282bn (£158bn), assuming 20% of the region's population falls ill.
'SARS effect'
The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed more than 60 people in South East Asia since late 2003.
The foreign ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Burma, Thailand and Vietnam have agreed to co-operate closely to control the spread of the disease and develop a human vaccine.
Poultry stocks in Vietnam and Thailand have already fallen by 15% to 20% as a result of the disease and control measures such as culling.
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