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Mike · Site Admin Joined: 07 Sep 2004 Posts: 4359 Location:

By Simon Montlake
Mu Aye Pu, Burma
After 55 years of fighting for a separate homeland, Burma's ethnic Karen rebels are accustomed to upheaval.
A verbal ceasefire agreed last year with Burma's military regime had offered a glimmer of hope that peace could prevail.

But the dramatic fall from power last month of Prime Minister Khin Nyunt has raised fears that hawkish army generals may instead opt for a return to war.

Some Thai officials have reportedly warned that renewed fighting in Burma could trigger an outflow of refugees across the Thai border.

Karen rebels are worried that peace efforts may not now bear fruit

Karen leaders had reached a "gentleman's agreement" with Khin Nyunt. The former prime minister, who is under house arrest in Rangoon, was seen as a relative moderate who favoured bringing insurgents into the "legal fold".

The Karen National Union (KNU) is among a handful of ethnic-based groups in Burma that have not signed a formal ceasefire with the junta.

But pressure from Thailand helped nudge the KNU towards peace talks with the government in December 2003, and the two sides have met several times since, although they have failed to reach any concrete agreements.

A KNU team was in Rangoon to meet Khin Nyunt when he was arrested and was forced to make a speedy exit the next day.

But a senior Karen commander, Colonel Ner Dah, said Khin Nyunt's removal did not mean that the peace process was over.

"It's better to keep talking. Both sides are playing a political game now," said Ner Dah, the son of KNU elder statesman General Bo Mya, at his battalion headquarters near the Thai border.
However, even before Khin Nyunt was ousted, some KNU members were sceptical of the ceasefire.

They said it had brought little relief to their devastated homeland and had allowed the Burmese army to tighten their grip.

Human-rights groups say the ceasefire has reduced the fighting, though KNU guerrilla units continue to attack enemy supply lines.

Rights groups also say Karen villagers are still being forced to work for free for the Burmese army as porters or manual labourers.

As many as 200,000 Karen have been driven from their homes during decades of war, according to aid agency estimates.

A further 120,000 refugees from Burma, mostly Karen, live in camps in Thailand.

At the riverside camp of Battalion 202, hundreds of Karen families have sought protection from the fighting.

In the last few years, they have planted rice and vegetables to supplement a diet of foraged roots and fruits.

Their raised bamboo huts lean up against heavily-forested limestone hills that provide a natural barricade. A newly-built school has four rudimentary classrooms for over 50 children.

It is a hopeful sign that perhaps a new generation of Karen may have other options than taking up arms.

But even this calm is easily broken.

A surprise attack in September by Burmese troops killed one Karen soldier and sparked panic among civilians. After a day of fighting, the attackers were driven away. Ner Dah said the camp's defences have since been fortified.

"We have to be prepared," he said. "This is about our dignity. We have to defend ourselves."

Saw Paw Kler, 19, fled his village six years ago after his father was accused of being a KNU sympathiser.

He said he was ready to run again if the camp was attacked.

"We will have to flee across the border to Thailand if our troops can't keep us safe," he said.

On alert

Some Karen soldiers say they fear that the Burmese are preparing for a dry-season offensive in the next few months.

"Everyone was happy at the time of the ceasefire. We all hoped it would lead to proper peace talks," said Private Saw Doh Moo.

"Burma has broken its promise and now they come to attack us."

Saw Doh Moo, whose right arm has a blue tattoo that reads God Is Love, said he enlisted when he was only 12.

He joined the KNU's army after his village was razed by Burmese troops.

Once a formidable force that controlled a huge swath of territory, the KNU army now poses little threat to Burma.

Its string of camps along the Thai border represent its final redoubt against the 400,000-strong Burmese army.

Khin Nyunt's replacement, Soe Win, has reportedly since told other ethnic groups in northern Burma that the government's policies would remain the same.

So Karen commanders are waiting to see if the junta is ready to resume talks to end what is by now the longest-running insurgency in Asia. So far, the signs are mixed.
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